From the Beyoncé of statisticians.
1. The media is probably overstating the magnitude of the shutdown's political impact.
2. The impact of the 1995-96 shutdowns is overrated in Washington's mythology.
3. Democrats face extremely unfavorable conditions in trying to regain the House.
4. The polling data on the shutdown is not yet all that useful, and we lack data on most important measures of voter preferences.
5. President Obama's change in tactics may be less about a change of heart and more about a change in incentives.
6. The increasing extent of GOP partisanship is without strong recent precedent, and contributes to the systemic uncertainty about political outcomes.As a reader of the Monkey Cage and Wonkblog Point 1 and 2 are not a surprise. Point 3 is worth listening to just because of his track record.
Point 6 seems to contradict some conservative commentators' narrative that it is nothing new, and our founding fathers (Madison) design the system to work this way.